It’s the last day of January. And in two days we will get word about when we can expect winter to end. If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, it’s back to huddling under blankets. But if he doesn’t, we’ll be breaking out the bikinis and flip flops before we know it!

Forecasting is an ancient practice

Forecasting has always satisfied a deep human need. Back in 1500 BC, the Chinese Shang Dynasty passed out plum positions to those who could hone their sight and hearing to predict weather patterns. The ancient Greeks put together a list of 200 ways to forecast weather.

Today, of course, we have fancy meteorological equipment. But we still set aside a day each year to march out with elaborate fanfare a pudgy little groundhog, the great predictor of our winter fate.

Why is forecasting so important to us?

Well, it comes in handy when making some pretty important decisions. Knowing if the summer will be wet or dry helps farmers make key decisions related to their crops. Knowing if the stock market will rise or fall helps investors put their money in the best ventures. Knowing which strains of flu virus will be the most prevalent in any given year helps scientists protect against severe illness by preparing the most effective flu shots. Knowing the number of questions on any given subject on the SAT helps tutors better prepare their students to achieve high scores.

On the more frivolous side, the status of the groundhog’s shadow on February 2 helps us plan our wardrobe. And if the outcome is good, it can help us improve our state of mind.

So forecasting gives us information that helps us make better decisions. And that is a good thing. But we all know that forecasting is not an exact science. I can remember still remember April 1975 when 9.8 inches of snow fell in Chicago despite Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction of a short winter. I can also remember pulling my hair out at a sudden 500 point drop in the stock market on the heels of a sunny bull market prediction.

The reality is, and we all know it, forecasting is very imprecise. Heck, it’s often downright wrong. But forecasting satisfies our need to prepare – to make the most of the good times and to take whatever steps we can to minimize the bad. For ourselves and for our children.

So here’s hoping there’s no shadow in sight on Tuesday. Happy Groundhog’s Day!

Share your stories of Groundhog Day!

Nonviolence is a powerful and just weapon which cuts without wounding and ennobles the man who wields it. It is a sword that heals.

–Martin Luther King

Martin Luther King preached nonviolence in the 1960s. How are his ideas inspiring action in 2016?

The Sea of Rage

Our media fills our lives with constant news of gang shootings, cop shootings, terrorist shootings and bombings. Sometimes it can feel like the whole world has taken up arms.

But it’s not true. And it’s really important to hear news of the work that’s being done to carry on Dr. King’s movement of nonviolence.

Choruses of Peace

There’s strength in numbers. I find it’s hard to raise my voice in peace when it feels sure to be drowned out by shouts of violent rage. But when I know I am joining a chorus, my spirits and my voice soar.

So here are some choirs you might want to join.

• #Where Is The Love? After the shooting of Trayvon Martin, students in Miami started a nonviolence campaign grounded in what they call Martin Luther King’s six principles of nonviolence. They spread the love on social media with the twitter handle Where Is the Love@sharethelovemia. The coolest thing they’ve done to date is to organize a concert for peace. I also love their tweets that include quotes from Gandhi, Harriet Beecher Stowe and Dolly Parton, among others!
• Aaliyah Stewart’s brother went to a basketball game one day in his hometown in Indiana. And he never made it back. He was gunned down at a gas station. Aaliyah was just seven years old. Seven years later, Aaliyah’s other brother and a cousin were killed in the very same week. At the age of fifteen, she has been to twelve funerals of friends and family. Her response: raise money for college scholarships for classmates to break the cycle of violence through education. She’s got a pack of fundraising tools – started a “gofundme” campaign, put together a benefit, sells #IAmThem T-shirts. Her message: Stop the Violence.
• Nonviolence International operates on a global scale helping to nurture local nonviolent activity in the United States and around the world. You can learn more at http://nonviolenceinternational.net/?page_id=1580.

There are many more people, young and old, raising their voices for peace. If you are interested in getting involved, do a little Internet searching to find one that is right for you.

Do you have stories to share about action for nonviolence?

One resolution perennially on my New Year’s list is helping the homeless. This year, I am keeping a quarters jar where I will collect stray change that I accumulate. I will then transfer amounts from there to a change box in my car so that I can always have a little something for men and women who approach my car window when I’m at a stoplight.

Gotta Have Sole

This year, I’ve been inspired by another great idea thought up and put into action by a passionate young student. Nicholas Lowinger was just a kid when he visited a homeless center and was struck by the children he met there whose shoes were worn out or who had no shoes at all. Moved to change this, he first donated his gently used shoes. But even that didn’t feel quite right. He was a teen – he knew how important cool shoes are in high school. So he set his sights higher. And he started Gotta Have Sole Foundation which over the past six years has donated 44,000 pairs of new shoes to homeless shelters in 43 states. Over this holiday season alone, Nicholas led a drive that raised enough support to provide shoes for over 1,400 kids. Every ten-dollar contribution buys a pair of new shoes.

To learn more check out http://www.gottahavesole.org/ghs/. Another reminder that young people are ready and able to take on the task of building a better world.

Know other organizations collecting new or gently used items? Share here!

Tis the season for festivals of light. Indians mark Diwali with the lighting of thousands of lamps. In Sweden, girls wreath their heads with candles as they celebrate St. Lucia. Jews around the world light the menorah. Christians light advent candles. In Thailand, candle bedecked boats drift on the waters.

Light and Hope

In the old days, when these traditions got started, twas a pretty grim season – dark, cold, no electric light or gas heat to help people warm up on the inside. Fire was the only way to push the cold darkness away. We’ve come a long way but that feeling of bleak midwinter still envelops us. This year, maybe more than most, the horrific happenings around the world add to a feeling of darkness. Maybe we need these festivals of light now more than ever. And to share in them with our children. After all, those cherubic little faces hold our hopes for the future.

Where to find these Festivals of Light?

One of our family traditions is a day at the Chicago Museum of Science and Industry Christmas Trees from Around the World. There are trees that seem to dance with colored brightness, trees that quiet us down with lights of white illuminating deep green pine, trees with widely spaced branches that cradle flickering candles. Some version of this is echoed in cities and towns across the world.

Another family tradition of ours takes place in the smaller space of our home. There we gather around the table, sing songs, and light candles – four orbs spaced around an advent wreath of pine, eight shedding light from a menorah. Each person has a special role – one lights the candles, one leads us in singing, one accompanies us on the piano, one reads stories of light and hope, one snuffs the flame at the end of our gathering. The scent of melting wax binds us as we move on to our separate activities.

We gather around the light of the fireplace, warming our hands around cups of hot cider and cocoa that we ladle from large pots simmering over stovetop flame.

One year, my daughter wanted only one thing for Christmas – a miniature lighted tree for her bedside table. Each night during the long winter season, she turned on those tiny tree lights, filling her room with a soft warm glow.

There is something magical and hopeful about this time of year as we create light in the midst of darkness. Enjoy the season!

What are your traditions of light?